NFL Best Bets - Best NFL Bets This Week | Pickswise (2024)

The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks face off as 1 of the 4 games in the late-afternoon slate for NFL Week 1, but I wouldn’t call this matchup must-watch TV. However, I do have my Broncos vs Seahawks best bet of the week in this game. Denver enters the year with rookie QB Bo Nix at the helm, and I’m not very high on the Oregon standout as an NFL-caliber player. After 2 seasons with Russell Wilson leading the team, Sean Payton is essentially starting over again at the QB position, and it will likely be tough sledding for Denver this year. In addition to parting ways with Wilson, Denver also lost WR Jerry Jeudy, C Lloyd Cushenberry and LB Josey Jewell, who were all key parts of last year’s squad.

Pete Carroll is no longer in town for Seattle, and I expect some regression from a team that surprised many people over the past couple of seasons behind the QB play of Geno Smith. The biggest issue for Seattle in 2023-24 was their defense, specifically their defensive line (31st in EPA last year), as they were last in the NFL against the run. However, rookie Byron Murphy should immediately improve this defense, and going up against a rookie QB to start the season will help improve their chances of starting the year on the right foot. However, they lost their top 3 linebackers, Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks and Devin Bush, so there are plenty of questions surrounding this unit. On the other hand, I expect this offense to be quite strong, as they added OT George Fant to help on the line, and they still have an elite WR unit with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to compliment their 2-headed rushing attack of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

This game is among the ugliest on the NFL Week 1 slate, but I expect Seattle to win easily. Their home advantage isn’t as strong as when the Legion of Boom was leading the defense, but they should still be able to dominate the Broncos on the ground or through the air. Outside of CB Patrick Surtain II and DT Byron Murphy, this Denver defense is void of talent, and I’m not exactly sure how they will scheme an offensive plan outside of giving the ball to RB Javonte Williams. The Broncos were 3-5 on the road last season, and I expect them to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2024-25. I’m backing Seattle to win big at home as my Broncos vs Seahawks pick.

Broncos vs Seahawks prediction: Seattle -5.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable up to to -6.5.

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Washington and Tampa Bay get their 2024 NFL season campaigns started and for our Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction I like the road team to at least turn this into a very close game. The Bucs vastly exceeded expectations last season, making it all the way to the Divisional Round of the playoffs before being ousted by the Lions, while it was a season to forget for Washington as they went 4-13 and allowed by far more points than any other team in the league, shipping an average of more than 30 points per game.

However, things have changed a lot in the offseason for the Commanders and I expect them to show great improvement this year, starting with this game in Tampa. The sky is the limit for Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, who looks every bit a superstar and is capable of having a debut season similar to that of CJ Stroud. This Washington offense did great things last year with Sam Howell under center, and with the arrival of Austin Ekeler in the backfield and drafting of Luke McCaffrey to play alongside Terry McLaurin and tight end Zach Ertz, this team could really take off. Dan Quinn takes over as head coach and should be able to shore up the defense, especially with the arrival of Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler and Clelin Ferrell.

As for the Bucs, it was a miraculous first season in Florida for Baker Mayfield, but they still looked unspectacular for the most part and finished the campaign with a 9-8 record. Tampa does boast a solid defense but their offense does have some holes and it’s hard to see them pulling away from Washington. Therefore my Commanders vs Buccaneers best bet is for Washington to keep it within a field goal, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game outright.

Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction: Commanders +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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The Saints are in no man’s land, which is arguably the worst position you can be in as an NFL franchise. That’s what having Derek Carr gets you in today’s day and age, but at least New Orleans gets the benefit of having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season based on opponent win totals. However, one of the worst spots on this schedule comes in Week 5 when the Saints will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and we have our Saints vs Chiefs prediction.

This will not only be the second straight road game for New Orleans, but the Saints will also be playing their fourth straight game against a team projected to make the postseason. Throw in the fact that Kansas City has a bye week on deck, so there will be no overlook for Andy Reid’s team in this spot. Look for Patrick Mahomes and company to put on a show under the lights with the nation watching and for KC to prevail as our Saints vs Chiefs best bet.

Saints vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing.

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